Nvidia’s valuation just crossed the $5.05 trillion threshold, forcing a global economic reckoning. This has sparked the $5 trillion question: Is this company the engine of a new AI-driven future, or is it the peak of the next great economic bust?
The argument for “boom” (the engine) is built on staggering momentum. The chipmaker added $1 trillion in value in just 90 days. It has a $500 billion order backlog, and a massive $100 billion deal with OpenAI. Partnerships with Uber, Nokia, and the US government suggest it is the engine for every industry.
The argument for “bust” (the bubble) is equally compelling. Formal warnings have been issued by the IMF and Bank of England. They see a speculative frenzy disconnected from reality.
Their case is built on two facts. First, the $100 billion OpenAI deal is seen by critics as “circular” inflation. Second, and more critically, analysts are concerned that “nearly all corporate AI pilots are failing,” meaning the demand for the engine’s power is speculative. As Nvidia’s value tops national GDPs, the answer will impact everyone.